New Zealand Heads to the Polls in a Dead Heat, With a Tiny Centrist Party Holding the Keys to Power
New Zealanders head to the polls on Saturday in an election that has become one of the closest in the country's modern history, with the centre-left Labour Party and the centre-right National Party running neck and neck in the final polls and a tiny centrist party, The Opportunities Party (TOP), emerging as the likely kingmaker.
The final round of national polling put Labour on 36.4% and National on 36.1%, a gap smaller than the margin of error and a remarkable turnaround for a Labour Party that was written off after its defeat in the last election. The Greens were on 11.2%, ACT on 7.8% and New Zealand First on 5.6%.
It is TOP, though, on 4.9%, that could decide the outcome. The party, founded by economist Gareth Morgan and now led by former public servant Anna Bremner, is projected to win two or three seats — enough to give either major party a working majority, but not enough to govern alone.
Bremner has refused to say which side she would support, telling reporters this week that her party would talk to both Labour and National after the votes are counted. 'We are not in the business of picking a side before New Zealand has spoken,' she said. 'Our price is a seat at the table on tax reform, housing and climate — not a ministerial car.'
The campaign has been dominated by the cost of living, with food prices up 18% over three years and mortgage rates still above 6% despite a series of cuts by the Reserve Bank. Both major parties have promised tax relief, but Labour's plan is aimed at middle earners while National's is broader and more expensive, costing an estimated NZ$4.2 billion over four years.
What happens next will depend on the count. Under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional system, a party needs 61 seats to govern. Current projections give Labour 46 seats and National 45, with the Greens on 14, ACT on 10, New Zealand First on 7 and TOP on 3 — leaving both blocs short and TOP holding the balance of power.
If neither major party can reach a deal with TOP, the country could face a second election — an outcome both leaders have ruled out but neither can entirely exclude. For now, the only certainty is that Saturday's vote will be close, and that the smallest party in Parliament may end up with the biggest say.
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